a blog about a lot of things

Best Picture Most likely winner : La La Land. A heavy favourite and much has been written about the race between La La Land and Moonlight for the best Picture prize as representative of the two types of movies that pick up Oscars. La La Land is a backward looking film in the sense that it draws heavily on the history of film and is influenced by the past. It is a good film and despite having a bit of a backlash recently on its treatment of jazz and its female protagonist, it is a spectacle in every sense of the word. Backup Pick : Moonlight. The best odds on this right now are 9/2 which is enough for second favourite but not really close ( La La Land is at 1/9). While La La Land is backward looking and a film about the movies and making movies, Moonlight is a far more unique film. It isn't an original story or even an uncommon one; but it is a rarely portrayed one. Films in African-American communities that have a heavy drug component are common but too often cliche. ...

Best Picture Most likely winner :  Alejandro Gonzalez  Iñárritu,  Arnon Milchan ,  Steve Golin ,   Mary Parent ,  Keith Redmon   for   The Revenant.   A chance for  Iñárritu to win back to back Best Picture and Best Director Oscars for this superb revenge film. Heavily carried by the strength of Leonardo DiCaprio's performance set against beautiful backdrops of Western Canada, the film seems to tread a path of literary stature in the tale of struggle and vengeance. Backup Pick :  Brad Pitt ,  Dede Gardner , and  Jeremy Kleiner  for  The Big Short .   Hard to adapt to screen with a sprawling cast and disparate stories, directed by a director taking his first foray into more dramatic material. Comedy-drama is a hard field to stand out in and do successfully because of the conflict of these two styles and they can seem to detract from each other (comedy taking away from the seriousness, primarily). B...

Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio as Hugh Glass in Revenant. Might actually be the year for DiCaprio to get his Oscar. They might have to change the memes about always missing out (or bring out lots more if he does). A prominent role where DiCaprio gets to play a man going through pain and torture and fuelled by vengeance. Completely different from his more heralded roles as rich playboys in The Aviator and Wolf of Wall Street. Details of the harrowing filming conditions and the difficulty in portraying the part will surely also play in Dicaprio's favour as well. But the strength of the performance of a frenzied man is what would win him the Oscar.   Backup Pick:  Eddie Redmayne as Lili Elbe/Einar Wegenar in The Danish Girl. It's a cliche that an actress must make herself look unattractive to have a better chance at an Oscar (Charlize Theron in Monster, Nicole Kidman in The Hours) . I'm not sure how the case of Eddie Redmayne looking stunning as Li...

Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Eddie Redmayne  as Stephen Hawking in  The Theory of Everything.   Wins at the SAG, BAFTAs and Globes makes Redmayne much more secure as frontrunner than a month ago. The academy tends to prefer dramatic portrayals over comedic ones as well. Even though the representation of Hawking by Redmayne manages to regularly show Hawking's trademark wit and sense of fun, it's mostly quite a serious take on the Professor. Factor in the difficulty of playing a real (famous) person coupled with the difficult representation needed to show Hawking's physical disabilities and it's very likely the Oscar goes to Eddie Redmayne.   Backup Pick:  Michael Keaton  as Riggan Thomson in  Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) . At the start of the year Keaton and Redmayne were almost at the same odds to win, but he's faded since then in the reckoning. That doesn't diminish the performance in any way, as the perfect mix of...

Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in Dallas Buyers Club. Starting to look pretty secure after wins at the SAG and Globes and to be honest he very much deserves it if he does get it. Quality serious acting from Matthew McConaughey, who could see that coming after all the romance-comedy stuff? But he is excellent and completely convincing in a difficult portrayal (as true stories always are). And the weight loss is dramatic as well. Large parts of the movie I can't believe he's so skinny. Backup Pick: Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave. About half the film he doesn't speak at all and the acting is just conveyed by facial expressions. And it's done. With facial expressions alone Ejiofor gives us the look of a man in the trenches with a thousand yard stare occasionally broken by the reluctance to let despair take full control. This film is extremely difficult to watch and that's not least due to the excel...

Best Actor Most likely winner : Colin Firth as King George VI in 'The King's Speech'. Firth commands attention in every scene. Warm is the overused adjective to describe his performance as the King but it's accurate too. Backup Pick : James Franco as Aron Ralston in '127 Hours'. For most of the film it's Franco alone in the scene. And it's an excellent film, so that alone should be a gauge for the strength of his acting. He manages to portray a man who's self-confident enough to cause him to make his own problems but self-reliant enough to get out of them. Most deserving (My pick): I'm all for Colin Firth. I think period pieces are immensely watchable and I think Firth deserves this. He had a lot of help from the supporting cast but he really made the movie good. Best Actress Most likely winner : Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in 'Black Swan'. Captivating performance. She gets it all down. Shy and repressed but then embraces her new rol...

The criteria for this is that only actors/actresses with one previous Oscar nomination or less are eligible (no Peter O'Toole). Also only first time future winners, so no one who has won an Oscar previously. The movies used for justification (minimum 2) will not include the Oscar nominated role. Since it's potential future, trying not to include actors who haven't had a good recent performance (no Steve Martin) 15. Viggo Mortensen justification : The Road; Appaloosa, A History of Violence; 14. Mathieu Amalric justification : The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Kings and Queen; Munich; Un Conte de Noel 13. Natalie Portman justification: V for Vendetta; Brothers; Cold Mountain; garden state 12. Sergi Lopez justification: dirty pretty things; Pan's labyrinth; Harry, un ami qui vous veut du bien 11. Tony Leung Chiu-Wai justification: Lust, Caution; In the Mood for Love;Internal Affairs; Chungking Express;2046 10. Gael Garcia Bernal justification : Amores Perros; Y tu mama ta...