a blog about a lot of things

Best Picture Most likely winner : La La Land. A heavy favourite and much has been written about the race between La La Land and Moonlight for the best Picture prize as representative of the two types of movies that pick up Oscars. La La Land is a backward looking film in the sense that it draws heavily on the history of film and is influenced by the past. It is a good film and despite having a bit of a backlash recently on its treatment of jazz and its female protagonist, it is a spectacle in every sense of the word. Backup Pick : Moonlight. The best odds on this right now are 9/2 which is enough for second favourite but not really close ( La La Land is at 1/9). While La La Land is backward looking and a film about the movies and making movies, Moonlight is a far more unique film. It isn't an original story or even an uncommon one; but it is a rarely portrayed one. Films in African-American communities that have a heavy drug component are common but too often cliche. ...

Oscar Predictions -2017-Acting Awards Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Casey Affleck  as Lee Chandler in  Manchester by the Sea.  This award is not as much of a lock as it once seemed to be. Affleck's allegations of sexual harassment are getting more play in the media which could hurt his chances. And also, no award is sure when Denzel Washington is in the race. This takes nothing away from Affleck's performance in the film which is nothing short of exemplary. He's managed to portray a wide range of emotions in this very emotional film and hits all the right notes. Moving between immature to world-weary as the film moves, it manages to be one of the strongest portrayals of a emotionally suffering character in recent memory.   Backup Pick:  Denzel Washington  as Troy Maxson in  Fences.  Denzel's win in the SAG awards is what has been widely credited as turning this Oscar into a two horse race (which it definitely wa...

Best Picture Most likely winner :  Alejandro Gonzalez  Iñárritu,  Arnon Milchan ,  Steve Golin ,   Mary Parent ,  Keith Redmon   for   The Revenant.   A chance for  Iñárritu to win back to back Best Picture and Best Director Oscars for this superb revenge film. Heavily carried by the strength of Leonardo DiCaprio's performance set against beautiful backdrops of Western Canada, the film seems to tread a path of literary stature in the tale of struggle and vengeance. Backup Pick :  Brad Pitt ,  Dede Gardner , and  Jeremy Kleiner  for  The Big Short .   Hard to adapt to screen with a sprawling cast and disparate stories, directed by a director taking his first foray into more dramatic material. Comedy-drama is a hard field to stand out in and do successfully because of the conflict of these two styles and they can seem to detract from each other (comedy taking away from the seriousness, primarily). B...

Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Eddie Redmayne  as Stephen Hawking in  The Theory of Everything.   Wins at the SAG, BAFTAs and Globes makes Redmayne much more secure as frontrunner than a month ago. The academy tends to prefer dramatic portrayals over comedic ones as well. Even though the representation of Hawking by Redmayne manages to regularly show Hawking's trademark wit and sense of fun, it's mostly quite a serious take on the Professor. Factor in the difficulty of playing a real (famous) person coupled with the difficult representation needed to show Hawking's physical disabilities and it's very likely the Oscar goes to Eddie Redmayne.   Backup Pick:  Michael Keaton  as Riggan Thomson in  Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) . At the start of the year Keaton and Redmayne were almost at the same odds to win, but he's faded since then in the reckoning. That doesn't diminish the performance in any way, as the perfect mix of...

Best Actor Most Likely Winner: Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in Dallas Buyers Club. Starting to look pretty secure after wins at the SAG and Globes and to be honest he very much deserves it if he does get it. Quality serious acting from Matthew McConaughey, who could see that coming after all the romance-comedy stuff? But he is excellent and completely convincing in a difficult portrayal (as true stories always are). And the weight loss is dramatic as well. Large parts of the movie I can't believe he's so skinny. Backup Pick: Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave. About half the film he doesn't speak at all and the acting is just conveyed by facial expressions. And it's done. With facial expressions alone Ejiofor gives us the look of a man in the trenches with a thousand yard stare occasionally broken by the reluctance to let despair take full control. This film is extremely difficult to watch and that's not least due to the excel...